FIRST: Political Operatives have long misunderstood the Independent Vote. They’ve interpreted this block as a political, philosophically, hybrid and this is not the case at all. The Independent is apolitical and outcome-specific centered and largely views social issues as incompatible with the role of government. They want and look for deliberate and focused leadership and they don’t care from what side of the political spectrum it comes from. Further, the notion of what becomes defined as Social-Issues are, decidedly, nothing more than political-teasing whose appeal trend toward the polar of left/right of Independent; hard-left Democrat or hard-right Republican. The GOP’s failure to grasp this simple attribute is why Dole and McCain lost and why Reagan beat Carter.
SECOND: Make no mistake the Independent Vote will decide Campaign 2012 whether at the Presidential level, Congress or Governorships; the latter two, in my opinion, being far more important than the race for the key to the Oval Office. The President can win a second term without the Independent Vote; the GOP cannot win without it. Many have questioned my view on this however the accuracy of this observation can be seen in the dynamics of the Romney/Santorum metrics currently in-play. Romney’s success is not occurring because he wins the Independent Vote or the Hard-Right of the GOP; he wins largely on the strength of his fixed-in-place 25-28% block and the balance he picks up either from the Undecided or Open Primary rules which allow cross-party penetration. This strategy may work in at the Caucus or Primary level but it never plays out at the National level.
As with the case of Romney, who wins based on the automatic vote of his already-a-fan base, President Obama is banking on the same metrics; he is hoping for a win not from the strength of issues or even in numbers but merely because his team-strategy is relying on the opposition of the no-show or protest-vote. Santorum, on the other hand, plays for the fixed-in-place social-conservative; the problem with this is that at the national level, as we’ve seen with Dole and McCain, the Independent Vote will not break in favor of a social-conservative or the moderate. In short, Romney does better with Santorum in the Race because Santorum drives Independents, albeit in small numbers but clearly enough to win, to Romney and Romney Super-Pac drives Independents away from Gingrich however only in very small numbers. To believe that Gingrich is unable to capture Independent Votes, evidence by the vote tally, ignores a critical component of the electorate matrix: the numbers indicate that as many as 75% of the Independents are not voting and the casual force for this fact can only be attributed to Romney and to a lesser extent Rick Santorum all of which proves the point made thus far.
THIRD: Gingrich will stay in the Race because splitting Romney’s target-acquisitioning (Super-Pac) between him and Santorum works in Gingrich’s favor. Mr. Santorum is a fine man however his, like Romney, political positioning will trend toward repelling the Independent Vote rather than capturing its favor. Gingrich is smart and knows there’s no matching Romney’s sizable war-chest and why should he; the best strategy is to let Romney bleed-away his funds on attack-ads targeting Santorum and by doing so turn the public adverse to the Romney mantra of in the absence of substance, bludgeon your opponent routine.
One should fully expect that Romney, if (by late June) he is unable to amass the required 1,144 delegates or even more so that the 1,144 Delegates are not durable and reliable through to the August Convention in Tampa, may very well back out of the nomination process. Surprised? You shouldn’t be and for a very good reason: Mr. Romney will not want to be seen as having lost the GOP challenge to Mr. Obama, it’s not in his modus-operandi. Unlike McCain who will take one for the Team and then wear the battle-scars on his sleeve and play it for all it is worth, Romney has no such sense of valor/opportunism or does he take up a challenge or cause simply based on the Ideal or Principle of an issue; no, his make-up is the kind that fights only battles he can win and he will drop and run before he can be seen as having lost the battle to President Obama; this is Mitt Romney, this is his pattern and this is how he rolls. He doesn’t mind a tussle now and then just so long as someone else takes the punch. This is Leadership?
The great fear of the GOP established-elite is a non-TKO Gingrich marching into Tampa winning the nomination, center stage, right in front of America. In this environment Gingrich is in his element, it is his zone, his sweet spot and he could very well win the nomination at the Convention and this fact is pickling the GOP über-structure as the soak in the brine of their twisted matrix which places Ideology over, above and beyond the Ideal. The greater truth of course is that our loss, on a national level, of an allegiance to our Common Ideal is what lies at the heart of every problem this Country faces.
Folks are going to have to set aside the petty and nonsensical pabulum of ideology and get smart; to think that one Candidate is going to, in a mere four year term, reverse decades of dysfunction is absurd. We must think differently and view the process dynamically and approach the solution by first disrupting the occurring dysfunction; by suspending the slide-to-oblivion that is the present trajectory of this nation. We must align ourselves with a specific plan for addressing a specific problem, a specific answer to a known and equally conspicuous dilemma. Barring the appearance of a last-minute Trojan-Horse, a Jeb Bush or a Mitch Daniels which on its own would be unquestionably devious, then you go with the best available and yes, I believe that to be Gingrich.
It appears that our National Government has in fact become a Theocracy; the Religion is based on a formalized doctrine of few words: Verse I: Divide & Conquer. Verse II: The Divided & The Conquered. And, Verse III: Send Invitations.
Curtis C. Greco, Founder