Let us not forget that Western sanctions, along with a global market flooded with overstocks of Crude & Natural Gas, has gutted the Russian Economy and Putin’s domestic stature. Let us not forget that there is an Oil/Gas pipeline planned for a course that routes its way thru Syria, Northern Iraq and then on into Iran. This pipeline is in direct conflict with the Arab and Israeli producers. The destination for these commodities, via these pipelines, is thru Turkey and on to Europe.
Putin’s last best hope for salvaging his personal fortunes and his political future rests upon his ability to secure Russia’s economic future and he believes his alliance with Iran will act as an obstacle for the oh-so-eager-to-please Obama.
In pure operational and qualitative numbers the Russian Air force is outgunned and outnumbered by U.S. aircraft prepositioned (whether ground or carrier-based) criteria alone so then why risk contention with the U.S.? Two very simple reasons: Putin has no choice and he fully believes that the Administration will not respond because doing so may invite direct conflict with Iran. Observing Mr. Obama’s body language this past week at the U.N. while in the presence of the Russian Leader and it’s clear he is intimidated by Putin. It is no different with John Kerry’s bewildered expression when in a face-to-face with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Trumps attitude is actually not that far off-base as many might think. It’s a very functional strategy to let the Russians burn themselves out so long as U.S. air-assets remain in the region as a stand-off threat to the Russians. The risk is that there will be an air-to-air conflict with Russian aircraft however, using sufficient pairing of U.S. planes there is a definite advantage. One false move could provide the opportunity to illustrate Russia’s vulnerability and at the same time send Iran a stern warning that is long overdue.
Whether Assad needs to go is insignificant to the greater issue of arms proliferation – particularly nuclear – in the region and unfortunately all that Obama’s nuke deal accomplished was to remove any prospects of prevention. Israel is, as always, a difficult component as clearly Israel has long demonstrated that it is a “friend” so long as it serves their interests. This is not a condemnation of the State of Israel however, it is important to face the undeniable fact that when self-interest is the order-of-the-day there are no friends only obstacles complete with targets of opportunity.
Curtis C. Greco, Founder
