North Korea: A Strategic Change?

No matter how one spins the event occurring in Singapore the facts remain that the Administration has been working on the Korean Peninsula issue since day one; a truly monumental effort occurring (largely) behind the scenes. Unlike many public figures who live off of the lift from ornamental blustering Mr. Trump understood the risks had serious consequences. The plan is total De-Nuclearization through an incremental process which will take several years to materialize; however the beginning is at hand with the potential for an entirely different future available to Kim Jong Un and those within reach of a nuclear warhead. For the outcome to meet or be no less equal to the promise imbedded within the intentions of the scripted agreement, Kim is going to have to make a strategic change in his planning; otherwise the U.S. will be the least of his worries. There is one facet of this whole affair that remains unresolved and I’m speaking specifically of China and two issues that remain on my unresolved list: (1) Why is China seemingly indifferent to U.S. direct action on the Korean peninsula particularly when one would expect them to oppose a more robust U.S. presence. And, (2) What is China’s preference? A Korean peninsula unified by the South or a U.S. Security Guaranteed N. Korea where the current leadership is secured for (only) Kim’s lifetime? For those who follow my work/analysis I have been very clear on the issue of Nuclear Arms and the importance of their global destruction; these reports from Singapore are very good news and Mr. Trump, Mr. Pompeo, Ms. Hailey and their staff are to be congratulated. For Kim Jong Un, with a glimpse of what he faces in his home country, he will need a great deal of resolve if these events are to foretell a strategic change.

Curtis C. Greco, Founder

The following are additional comments/questions and or responses added post publication.

Comments:
Consider that China has no interest in creating a global (Military) footprint, in its thought processing it doesn’t need to so long as it maintains a dominant economic footprint. I believe that China wants to maintain an intimate relationship with the U.S. but only so far as it allows them access to the wake of U.S. actions. Think of how far China has come (in a short 40-year period) having had nearly unlimited access to U.S. advancements that for the U.S. are a product of 200 + years of effort after all, why shoot the mule who’s pulling your wagon? I fully expect that the Chinese-analytics have the U.S. legitimizing their footprint in the Asian perimeter however I expect that Mr. Trump will soon unveil a surprise that will deeply unsettle the Chinese and remind Kim Jong Un that Trump is not just another limp-witted American Politician but a deliberate tactician who has no interest in tying his country to the wagon train of perpetual global conquest. Expect, soon, for the U.S. to announce the reestablishment of a combined forces facility in the Philippines. CG

Remember that the Chinese lost their bid (at the World Court/The Hague) to perfect their claim on not only the Oil Reserves (when the U.S. Blocked their purchase of Unocal-owners of the oil reserves in the South China Sea) but what they claim as their Sovereign and Historical Claim, what account to be the near entirety of the South China Sea. Understand that they have no legal claim to confiscate the region and that includes the construction of their island fortresses. China, despite what many think, is not the unstoppable military or economic juggernaut that many think it is. If only on the pretext of resource-sufficiency it is a wholly resource-dependent nation and its currency system is wholly dependent on the convertibility of the Yuan on the global market. What it does have is an economic system built on western technology and transplanted western demand that keeps it alive. Stay tuned! CG

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