Hostage Return on Investment

Humans, on occasion, are capable of profound wickedness, however when Governments, controlled by wicked incompetence are unleashed the risk expands geometrically. Yes, by all means, the release of any person being held against their will and without just cause is worthy of celebration – no question!

On the Administration side however, the dynamics are something quite different. For the release to have been a policy or diplomatic success the event should have occurred within a week of their confinement and not a function of a negotiated settlement.  For the Iran Nuke Deal to have been registered as a diplomatic success the Iranian enrichment infrastructure should never have been on the table. It should have been made clear, in advance, by it having already been destroyed or in the process of being disassembled, that the issue was a non-negotiable item. By the way, Kaddafi (Libya) willingly, and without a Nuke-Deal or funds transfer, ended their Nuclear Program; he saw what happened to Saddam Hussein and considered his own to be a similar fate; this is Policy/Diplomatic success.

The Obama Administration has taken their political ziegfest and applied it to international relations; an arena where the success of outcome, particularly where contests of ideology are concerned, is only ever successfully resolved where/when the stick of  blunt-force-trauma is at hand.

World Leaders have turned on the Administration because they are traumatized by a U.S. presence that is expressed in purely synthetic intellectualism and a flaccid caricature of commitment. It’s not that the world doesn’t fear U.S. military strength, it’s actually far more severe; world leaders understand that synthetic intellectualism is not leadership and so use of force is preemptively (for them) an off-the-table option. They understand that in the face of an opponent the supreme value of an eager, capable and superior force is supremely potent and the current U.S. Administration is intoxicated with its own illusion.

After all, and you know this to be true, a Bully has no motive to back down when he knows you will. The Obama Administration has fully adopted the flaccid approach to Foreign Policy and the Iranians Islamists know it. Secret negotiations? You bet! Why? Simple: Do you really believe Obama wanted it known that he made a deal with the Iranians whereby the Administration agreed, along with other components, to release sanctions/$1.7 Billion in exchange for the release of prisoners at a time of the Administrations choosing?

Back in June of 2015 I stated that Hillary was never going to make it to the White House. I also said that Team Obama was going to do everything to make it appear that they were supporting Clinton however, with no intent of actually letting her become the nominee. I said then that it would be one of two Obama anointees (Kerry or Biden) or there was an outside chance that Elizabeth Warren could slither in at the last moment, but that the Administration needed to marry a strategic policy success with Hillary’s inevitable collapse.

If the Administration can anchor the “Kerry Succeeds in Iran” banner together with the hostages, he’ll need only one more conspicuous policy routine and his political dance-card will appear, well, presidential. All of this, to be sure, is still unfolding but let’s be clear about the DNC standings. Clinton will likely not make it past March and the only reason Sanders appears a viable option is simply because Hillary is so deeply flawed. If Democrat Voters are to be lured to the voting booths in November, the bait will need to be a center-left-populist-sounding nymph. I’m betting that Team Obama expects the $1.7 Billion Obama paid the Iranians, which I’m certain was to have been a key component insuring the Birgdahl-like Hostage-swap, will prove itself a reconcilable return on investment for the Administration.

There’s many attributes to the Iranian story still under development however it should be clearly understood that despite the Administrations well-rehearsed story, the facts remain that the Iranian’s have not or have they been required to suspend their development of a thermonuclear device or its delivery systems.

Curtis C. Greco, Founder

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