Persian history is mauled with conflict, internal battles both in political and religious conflicts and the influences of external interests. The Iran of today is a scant residue of its former self suffering the greatest loss of its former land-mass, its territories in the Caucasus, to the Russian Empire during the Russo-Persian wars (1800’s). The discovery of oil (in the early 1900’s) brought about the intense interest of the British and the Russians which, during the World War I & II years, only served to increase Iran’s political and economic instability.
The last Shah of Iran (Mohamed Reza Pahlavi) made his appearance in the mid-1920’s with the hope of establishing a constitutional monarchy. In 1951 his Prime Minister, Mohammed Mosaddeq, achieved the required vote to nationalize the British-owned oil industry and despite British pressure the process of nationalization moved forward. The Prime Minister (Mosaddeq) was briefly discharged of his duties until a popular uprising forced the Shah to restore him to the status of Prime Minister, but this semblance of political stability was short lived as Mosaddeq would ultimately force the Shah into exile (circa August of 1953). The Shahs exile lasted less than three weeks; the U.S. (C.I.A.) and the British (MI6) mounted a coupe which restored the Shah’s rule and he remained in power, with the help of the U.S., until 1979 when the Iranian Revolution, led by Ayatollah Khomeini, established the Muslim Theocracy that exists today.
Certainly, not intended as a detailed history lesson or a treatise on all possible permutation however, this preamble hi-lites a few key points:
- Iran, today, is not a willing participant in any form of negotiations that entails external political influence having access to its power-base.
- Any agreement made will only survive only so long as there is an economic benefit to this power-base.
- One must understand, very clearly, that the Khomeini brand of Islam (Shia Islam) defines all non-believers as infidels and under their practices reserves the right to equivocate on any terms or commitments it has with the infidel.
- The political control, within Iran, of this Theocracy is based solely on its ability to project its militancy and as such the Regime cannot allow itself to appear weak in the face of a western challenge; this is also its greatest weakness.
With these points in mind it should come as no surprise that the Obama Administration’s “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” (a.k.a., “Iran Nuclear Deal”) would be (quickly) breached by the Iranians. Given the history, and setting aside for the moment the intemperance of fanaticism, one might find an element of understanding for their position. After all, Obama/Kerry thru their so-long-as-it-can’t-reach-us perspective so thoroughly watered-down both the JCPA and the companion UN Resolution (1929), the Iranians could level New York and still not be in violation of either agreement. What Obama/Kerry have done is to hand the Trump Administration the next Cuban Missile Crisis.
The rational response, where dangerous behavior erupts, is to simply encapsulate Iran and starve their nuclear program and their military of the resources it requires. This of course is a thoughtful approach however, it will require a cohesive response from all the external forces feeding Iran’s regime and I see little chance of that happening. It’s not a matter of putting the tiger back in its cage or returning the animal to the wilds of Africa; it will require an abundance of caution, patience and statesmanship which is not, as yet, a part of the current matrix of thought.
The plan, all along, has been to set the stage for ending the Iranian Theocracy and the evidence of this is quite visible. No, the fact is there’s a 90:10 chance that the Iranians will do something provocative and when they do, Lord help us. It might be as benign as one of their aircraft performing a low-fly over a U.S. Navy ship, a U.S. Carrier hitting a mine, a rush by an Iranian Patrol Boat, an Iranian ground-based missile claimed to have been fired in support of the Houthis Rebels in Yemen, but goes of course hitting U.S. forces or surface ship. The U.S. quickly follows with the customary “measured” response and then the Iranians lob a missile at Tel Aviv; this triggers the British and the French teaming up with the Saudi’s (air support) and the U.S. and the Israeli’s moving in to wage a cratering-war on Iranian nuclear facilities and laying waste to what remains of the Iranian air-defense systems.
All this with the hope that a window of opportunity appears for ending the Theocratic rule in Tehran. Sidebar: Keep in mind that as the hours pass Iran continues the perfecting of its ballistic missile capabilities include the ability to deliver a WMD. Further, the general message has been that Iran is merely working on Short/Medium ballistics tech, but that ability has already been in their inventory; no, what they are now working on is long-range (2,500-5000-mile range) capabilities and if they are able to increase fuel payload that place the East Coast of the U.S. within range!
Curtis C. Greco, Founder
